Note

Go to the end to download the full example code.

Surrogate Severe Calculation: PCPCombine, GenEnsProd, and RegridDataPlane

model_applications/short_range/GenEnsProd_fcstHRRR_fcstOnly_SurrogateSevere.conf

Scientific Objective

Run PCPCombine, GenEnsProd, and RegridDataPlane tools to create surrogate severe probability forecasts (SSPFs) for a given date. SSPFs are a severe weather forecasting tool and is a technique used by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) as well as others. SSPFs are based on updraft helicity (UH; \(\text{UH} = \int_{z_0}^{z_t} ( \omega * \zeta ) dz\)) since certain thresholds of UH have been shown as good proxies for severe weather. SSPFs can be thought of as the perfect model forecast. They are derived as follows:

  1. Regrid the maximum UH value over the 2-5km layer at each grid point to the NCEP 211 grid (dx = ~80km).

  2. Create a binary mask of points that meet a given threshold of UH.

  3. Convert the binary mask into a probability field by applying a Gaussian filter.

For more information, please reference Sobash et al. 2011 (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05046.1).

Version Added

METplus version 3.1

Datasets

Forecast: NOAA High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)

Observation: None

Climatology: None

Location: All of the input data required for this use case can be found in a sample data tarball. Each use case category will have one or more sample data tarballs. It is only necessary to download the tarball with the use case’s dataset and not the entire collection of sample data. Click here to access the METplus releases page and download sample data for the appropriate release: https://github.com/dtcenter/METplus/releases This tarball should be unpacked into the directory that you will set the value of INPUT_BASE. See Running METplus section for more information.

METplus Components

This use case runs the PCPCombine, GenEnsProd, and RegridDataPlane MET tools.

METplus Workflow

Beginning time (INIT_BEG): 2020020500

End time (INIT_END): 2020020500

Increment between beginning and end times (INIT_INCREMENT): 86400

Sequence of forecast leads to process (LEAD_SEQ): 36

This workflow loops over the data by process, meaning that each MET tool will run over all times before moving onto the tool. PCPCombine is called first, followed by GenEnsProd, and then, finally, RegridDataPlane. Data for two dates is available, either 20200205 or 20190518.

METplus Configuration

METplus first loads all of the configuration files found in parm/metplus_config, then it loads any configuration files passed to METplus via the command line, i.e. parm/use_cases/model_applications/short_range/GenEnsProd_fcstHRRR_fcstOnly_SurrogateSevere.conf

[config]

# Documentation for this use case can be found at
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/generated/model_applications/short_range/GenEnsProd_fcstHRRR_fcstOnly_SurrogateSevere.html

# For additional information, please see the METplus Users Guide.
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide

###
# Processes to run
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/systemconfiguration.html#process-list
###

PROCESS_LIST = PCPCombine, GenEnsProd, RegridDataPlane


###
# Time Info
# LOOP_BY options are INIT, VALID, RETRO, and REALTIME
# If set to INIT or RETRO:
#   INIT_TIME_FMT, INIT_BEG, INIT_END, and INIT_INCREMENT must also be set
# If set to VALID or REALTIME:
#   VALID_TIME_FMT, VALID_BEG, VALID_END, and VALID_INCREMENT must also be set
# LEAD_SEQ is the list of forecast leads to process
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/systemconfiguration.html#timing-control
###

LOOP_BY = INIT
INIT_TIME_FMT = %Y%m%d%H
INIT_BEG=2020020500
INIT_END=2020020500
INIT_INCREMENT=86400

LEAD_SEQ = 36


###
# File I/O
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/systemconfiguration.html#directory-and-filename-template-info
###

FCST_PCP_COMBINE_RUN = True
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_METHOD = DERIVE
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_STAT_LIST = MAX

FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_DIR = {INPUT_BASE}/model_applications/short_range/surrogate_severe_calc
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_TEMPLATE = {init?fmt=%Y%m%d}/hrrr_ncep_{init?fmt=%Y%m%d%H}f{lead?fmt=%HHH}.grib2

FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_DIR = {OUTPUT_BASE}/short_range/surrogate_severe_calc
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE = {init?fmt=%Y%m%d}/hrrr_ncep_{init?fmt=%Y%m%d%H}f{lead?fmt=%HHH}.nc


GEN_ENS_PROD_INPUT_DIR = {FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_DIR}
GEN_ENS_PROD_INPUT_TEMPLATE = {FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE}

GEN_ENS_PROD_OUTPUT_DIR = {FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_DIR}
GEN_ENS_PROD_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE = gen_ens_prod_{valid?fmt=%Y%m%d}_120000V_ens.nc

FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_RUN = True

FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_INPUT_DIR = {GEN_ENS_PROD_OUTPUT_DIR}
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_INPUT_TEMPLATE = {GEN_ENS_PROD_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE}

FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_OUTPUT_DIR = {FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_DIR}
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_OUTPUT_TEMPLATE = surrogate_severe_{init?fmt=%Y%m%d}_{lead?fmt=%HHH}V_regrid.nc


###
# Field Info
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/systemconfiguration.html#field-info
###

MODEL = FCST_ens
OBTYPE = ANALYS

ENS_VAR1_NAME = {FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_NAME}
ENS_VAR1_LEVELS = "(*,*)"
ENS_VAR1_THRESH = >=14.2, >=19.0, >=26.0, >=38.0, >=61.0


FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR1_INPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_24_A1_ENS_FREQ_ge14.2
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR2_INPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_24_A1_ENS_FREQ_ge19.0
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR3_INPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_24_A1_ENS_FREQ_ge26.0
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR4_INPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_24_A1_ENS_FREQ_ge38.0
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR5_INPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_24_A1_ENS_FREQ_ge61.0

FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR1_INPUT_LEVEL = "(*,*)"
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR2_INPUT_LEVEL = "(*,*)"
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR3_INPUT_LEVEL = "(*,*)"
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR4_INPUT_LEVEL = "(*,*)"
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR5_INPUT_LEVEL = "(*,*)"

FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR1_OUTPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_prob_75
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR2_OUTPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_prob_80
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR3_OUTPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_prob_85
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR4_OUTPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_prob_90
FCST_REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VAR5_OUTPUT_FIELD_NAME = MXUPHL_prob_95


###
# PCPCombine Settings
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/wrappers.html#pcpcombine
###

FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_ACCUMS = 1
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_NAMES = MXUPHL
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_LEVELS = Z2000-5000
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_NAME = MXUPHL_24
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_OUTPUT_ACCUM = 24
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_DERIVE_LOOKBACK = 24
FCST_PCP_COMBINE_INPUT_DATATYPE = GRIB


###
# GenEnsProd Settings
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/wrappers.html#genensprod
###

GEN_ENS_PROD_N_MEMBERS = 1
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENS_THRESH = 1.0

GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_TO_GRID = G211
GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_METHOD = MAX
GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_WIDTH = 27
GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_VLD_THRESH = 0.0
GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_CENSOR_THRESH = ==-9999
GEN_ENS_PROD_REGRID_CENSOR_VAL = 0.0

GEN_ENS_PROD_CENSOR_THRESH = ==-9999
GEN_ENS_PROD_CENSOR_VAL = 0.0

GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_LATLON = TRUE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MEAN = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_STDEV = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MINUS = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_PLUS = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MIN = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_MAX = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_RANGE = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_VLD_COUNT = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_FREQUENCY = TRUE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_NEP = FALSE
GEN_ENS_PROD_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_NMEP = FALSE


###
# RegridDataPlane Settings
# https://metplus.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Users_Guide/wrappers.html#regriddataplane
###

REGRID_DATA_PLANE_ONCE_PER_FIELD = False

REGRID_DATA_PLANE_VERIF_GRID = G211

REGRID_DATA_PLANE_METHOD = MAXGAUSS

REGRID_DATA_PLANE_WIDTH = 1

REGRID_DATA_PLANE_GAUSSIAN_DX = 81.271
REGRID_DATA_PLANE_GAUSSIAN_RADIUS = 120

MET Configuration

METplus sets environment variables based on user settings in the METplus configuration file. See How METplus controls MET config file settings for more details.

YOU SHOULD NOT SET ANY OF THESE ENVIRONMENT VARIABLES YOURSELF! THEY WILL BE OVERWRITTEN BY METPLUS WHEN IT CALLS THE MET TOOLS!

If there is a setting in the MET configuration file that is currently not supported by METplus you’d like to control, please refer to: Overriding Unsupported MET config file settings

GenEnsProdConfig_wrapped
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Gen-Ens-Prod configuration file.
//
// For additional information, please see the MET Users Guide.
//
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// Output model name to be written
//
//model =
${METPLUS_MODEL}

//
// Output description to be written
// May be set separately in each "obs.field" entry
//
//desc =
${METPLUS_DESC}

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// Verification grid
// May be set separately in each "field" entry
//
//regrid = {
${METPLUS_REGRID_DICT}

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// May be set separately in each "field" entry
//
//censor_thresh =
${METPLUS_CENSOR_THRESH}

//censor_val    =
${METPLUS_CENSOR_VAL}

//normalize =
${METPLUS_NORMALIZE}

//cat_thresh    =
${METPLUS_CAT_THRESH}

//nc_var_str    =
${METPLUS_NC_VAR_STR}

//
// Ensemble fields to be processed
//
ens = {
   //file_type =
   ${METPLUS_ENS_FILE_TYPE}

   //ens_thresh =
   ${METPLUS_ENS_THRESH}

   //vld_thresh =
   ${METPLUS_VLD_THRESH}

   //field =
   ${METPLUS_ENS_FIELD}

   ${METPLUS_ENS_CLIMO_MEAN_DICT}
   ${METPLUS_ENS_CLIMO_STDEV_DICT}

}

//ens_member_ids =
${METPLUS_ENS_MEMBER_IDS}

//control_id =
${METPLUS_CONTROL_ID}


////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// Neighborhood ensemble probabilities
//
//nbrhd_prob = {
${METPLUS_NBRHD_PROB_DICT}

//
// NMEP smoothing methods
//
//nmep_smooth = {
${METPLUS_NMEP_SMOOTH_DICT}

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// Climatology data
//
//climo_mean = {
${METPLUS_CLIMO_MEAN_DICT}

//climo_stdev = {
${METPLUS_CLIMO_STDEV_DICT}

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//
// Ensemble product output types
// May be set separately in each "ens.field" entry
//
//ensemble_flag = {
${METPLUS_ENSEMBLE_FLAG_DICT}

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//version = "V10.1.0";

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

tmp_dir = "${MET_TMP_DIR}";

${METPLUS_MET_CONFIG_OVERRIDES}

Python Embedding

This use case does not use Python embedding.

User Scripting

User Scripting is not used in this use case.

Running METplus

Pass the use case configuration file to the run_metplus.py script along with any user-specific system configuration files if desired:

run_metplus.py /path/to/METplus/parm/use_cases/model_applications/short_range/GenEnsProd_fcstHRRR_fcstOnly_SurrogateSevere.conf

See Running METplus for more information.

Expected Output

# A successful run of this use case will output the following to the screen and logfile::
#
#    INFO: METplus has successfully finished runing.
#
# A successful run will have the following output files in the location defined by {OUTPUT_BASE}, which
# is located in the metplus_system.conf configuration file located in /path/to/METplus/parm/metplus_config.
# This list of files should be found for every time run through METplus. Using the output for 20190518 as an example.
#
# **PCPCombine output**:
#
# * 20190518/hrrr_ncep_2019051800f036.nc
#
# **GenEnsProd output**:
#
# * gen_ens_prod_20190519_120000V_ens.nc
#
# **RegridDataPlane output**:
#
# * surrogate_severe_20190518_036V_regrid.nc
#

Keywords

Note

  • PCPCombineUseCase

  • GenEnsProdUseCase

  • RegridDataPlaneUseCase

Navigate to the METplus Quick Search for Use Cases page to discover other similar use cases.

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