""" SeriesAnalysis: Standardize ensemble members and calculate probabilistic outputs ================================================================================ model_applications/s2s/SeriesAnalysis_fcstCFSv2_obsGHCNCAMS_climoStandardized_MultiStatisticTool.conf """ ############################################################################## # .. contents:: # :depth: 1 # :local: # :backlinks: none ############################################################################## # Scientific Objective # -------------------- # This use case ingests a CFSv2 Ensemble forecast, with all ensemble members in a single file for a given year. # 29 years of forecast ensembles are used to create climatologies for each ensemble member. These climatologies # are then used to normalize each ensemble member via the Gen-Ens-Prod tool, allowing a meaningful comparison to # the observation dataset, which is presented as normalized. The forecast to observation verification are completed across both the temporal and spatial. # This use case highlights several important features within METplus; in particular, how to create climatologies for ensemble members using SeriesAnalysis, # how those climatologies can be used by GenEnsProd to normalize each ensemble member to its corresponding climatology, # and calculating probabilistic verfication on s2s data, which is a frequent request from climatological centers. ############################################################################## # Version Added # ------------- # # METplus version 5.0 ############################################################################## # Datasets # -------- # # **Forecast:** 29 CFSv2 Ensemble files, 2m temperature fields # # **Observations:** GHCNCAMS, 2m temperature field # # **Climatology:** Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) # # **Location:** All of the input data required for this use case can be # found in a sample data tarball. Each use case category will have # one or more sample data tarballs. It is only necessary to download # the tarball with the use case’s dataset and not the entire collection # of sample data. Click here to access the METplus releases page and download sample data # for the appropriate release: https://github.com/dtcenter/METplus/releases # This tarball should be unpacked into the directory that you will # set the value of INPUT_BASE. See :ref:`running-metplus` section for more information. ############################################################################## # METplus Components # ------------------ # # This use case initially runs SeriesAnalysis 24 times, once for each member of the CFSv2 ensemble, across the entire 29 years for forecast data. # The resulting 24 outputs are read in by GenEnsProd, which is called 29 times (once for each year). GenEnsProd uses the **normalize** option # and the SeriesAnalysis outputs to normalize each of the ensemble members relative to its climatology (FBAR) and standard deviation (FSTDEV). # The output from GenEnsProd are 29 files containing the uncalibrated probability forecasts for the lower tercile of January for each year. # The final probability verification is done across the temporal scale in SeriesAnalysis, and the spatial scale in GridStat. ############################################################################## # METplus Workflow # ---------------- # # **Beginning time (INIT_BEG):** 198201 # # **End time (INIT_END):** 201002 # # **Increment between beginning and end times (INIT_INCREMENT):** 1Y # # **Sequence of forecast leads to process (LEAD_SEQ):** None # # This use case utilizes 29 years of forecast data, with 24 members in each ensemble forecast. # The following boundary times are used for the entire script: # # | **Init Beg:** 1982-01-01 # | **Init End:** 2010-01-02 # # Because the increment is 1 year, all January 1st from 1982 to 2010 are processed for a total of 29 years. ############################################################################## # METplus Configuration # --------------------- # # METplus first loads all of the configuration files found in parm/metplus_config, # then it loads any configuration files passed to METplus via the command line, # i.e. parm/use_cases/model_applications/s2s/SeriesAnalysis_fcstCFSv2_obsGHCNCAMS_climoStandardized_MultiStatisticTool.conf # # .. highlight:: bash # .. literalinclude:: ../../../../parm/use_cases/model_applications/s2s/SeriesAnalysis_fcstCFSv2_obsGHCNCAMS_climoStandardized_MultiStatisticTool.conf # ############################################################################## # MET Configuration # ----------------- # # METplus sets environment variables based on user settings in the METplus # configuration file. See :ref:`How METplus controls MET config file settings` for more details. # # **YOU SHOULD NOT SET ANY OF THESE ENVIRONMENT VARIABLES YOURSELF! THEY WILL BE OVERWRITTEN BY METPLUS WHEN IT CALLS THE MET TOOLS!** # # If there is a setting in the MET configuration file that is currently # not supported by METplus you’d like to control, please refer to: # :ref:`Overriding Unsupported MET config file settings` # # .. dropdown:: SeriesAnalysisConfig_wrapped # # .. literalinclude:: ../../../../parm/met_config/SeriesAnalysisConfig_wrapped # # .. dropdown:: GenEnsProdConfig_wrapped # # .. literalinclude:: ../../../../parm/met_config/GenEnsProdConfig_wrapped # # .. dropdown:: GridStatConfig_wrapped # # .. literalinclude:: ../../../../parm/met_config/GridStatConfig_wrapped ############################################################################## # Python Embedding # ---------------- # # This use case does not use Python embedding. ############################################################################## # User Scripting # -------------- # # User Scripting is not used in this use case. ############################################################################## # Running METplus # --------------- # # Pass the use case configuration file to the run_metplus.py script along # with any user-specific system configuration files if desired:: # # run_metplus.py /path/to/METplus/parm/use_cases/model_applications/s2s/SeriesAnalysis_fcstCFSv2_obsGHCNCAMS_climoStandardized_MultiStatisticTool.conf /path/to/user_system.conf # # See :ref:`running-metplus` for more information. ############################################################################## # Expected Output # --------------- # # A successful run will output the following both to the screen and to the logfile:: # # INFO: METplus has successfully finished running. # # Refer to the value set for **OUTPUT_BASE** to find where the output data was generated. # Output for use case will be found in 4 distinct folders (relative to **OUTPUT_BASE**). # The output from the first SeriesAnalysis call goes to **SA_run1** will contain the following files: # # * mem??_output.nc # # where ?? will be replaced by values corresponding to each of the ensemble members (0 through 23). # The output for GenEnsProd goes into **GEP** and contains the following files: # # * gen_ens_prod_YYYY01_ens.nc # # where YYYY will be replaced by each year of the forecast data being processed (1982 through 2010). # The output from the second SeriesAnalysis call goes to **SA_run2** and contains the following files: # # * 198201to201002_CFSv2_SA.nc # # Finally, the output from GridStat will be in **GridStat** and will contain 29 folders of the following format: # # * ????01 # # where ???? will correspond to each year of the forecast data being processed (1982 through 2010). # Each of those folders will have the following files: # # * grid_stat_198201_000000L_19700101_000000V_pairs.nc # * grid_stat_198201_000000L_19700101_000000V_pstd.txt # * grid_stat_198201_000000L_19700101_000000V.stat # ############################################################################## # Keywords # -------- # # .. note:: # # * SeriesAnalysisUseCase # * GenEnsProdUseCase # * GridStatUseCase # * ProbabilityVerificationUseCase # * S2SAppUseCase # * NETCDFFileUseCase # * ClimatologyUseCase # # Navigate to the :ref:`quick-search` page to discover other similar use cases. # # # # sphinx_gallery_thumbnail_path = '_static/s2s-SeriesAnalysis_fcstCFSv2_obsGHCNCAMS_climoStandardized_MultiStatisticTool.png'